US
Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the
Absence of Federal Climate Policy
Posted on 2018-08-21 - 12:48
The
planned US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement as well as uncertainty
about federal climate policy has raised questions about the country’s
future emissions trajectory. Our model-based analysis accounts for
uncertainty in fuel prices and energy technology capital costs and
suggests that market forces are likely to keep US energy-related greenhouse
gas emissions relatively flat or produce modest reductions: in the
absence of new federal policy, 2040 greenhouse gas emissions range
from +10% to −23% of the baseline estimate. Natural gas versus
coal utilization in the electric sector represents a key trade-off,
particularly under conservative assumptions about future technology
innovation. The lowest emissions scenarios are produced when the cost
of natural gas and electric vehicles declines, while coal and oil
prices increase relative to the baseline.
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Eshraghi, Hadi; de Queiroz, Anderson Rodrigo; DeCarolis, Joseph F. (2018). US
Energy-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the
Absence of Federal Climate Policy. ACS Publications. Collection. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.8b01586