Model-Based
Theoretical Evaluation of the Feasibility
of Using Wastewater-Based Epidemiology to Monitor Monkeypox
Posted on 2022-09-01 - 19:45
Monkeypox is an orthopoxvirus that
is spreading rapidly
globally.
Gaps in current clinical testing availability and the lag from infection
to symptoms suggest the potential utility of wastewater-based epidemiology
(WBE) to monitor community level spread and prevalence. Here, we estimate
the distributions of Monkeypox DNA wastewater concentrations based
upon prior shedding reports and use Monte Carlo modeling to estimate
the probability of detection in wastewater. Stool shedding drives
total Monkeypox DNA wastewater concentrations, with a median daily
shedding of 7.78 log10 genome copies (GC) per infected individual.
Using a process limit of detection of 1.0 log10 GC/L, the average
United States wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) could feasibly detect
7 infections out of 100 000 people. The UK, Spain, Nigeria,
and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have respective minimum
infection rates of 54.7%, 44.5%, 3.1%, and 8.0% that of the US due
to decreased median per capita wastewater flow rates. We also develop
a strategy to select the number of replicate PCR assays based upon
expected case rates to optimize sewage Monkeypox detection. This model
demonstrates a framework to evaluate WBE applications without the
associated laboratory expense and highlights the key need for improved
shedding data to develop robust WBE programs and interpretation of
results.
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Chen, William; Bibby, Kyle (1753). Model-Based
Theoretical Evaluation of the Feasibility
of Using Wastewater-Based Epidemiology to Monitor Monkeypox. ACS Publications. Collection. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.2c00496
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AUTHORS (2)
WC
William Chen
KB
Kyle Bibby
KEYWORDS
spreading rapidly globallyper infected individualmonitor monkeypox monkeypoxmedian daily sheddingimproved shedding dataassociated laboratory expense100 000 people5 %, 3based theoretical evaluation7 %, 440 log10 gcbased epidemiology1 %,us duesymptoms suggestprocess limitpotential utilitykey needdemocratic republicalso develop