posted on 2023-12-04, 19:44authored byBradley
M. Conrad, David R. Tyner, Matthew R. Johnson
Under the Global
Methane Pledge, Canada is developing oil and gas
sector methane regulations targeting 75% reductions from 2012 levels
by 2030. Without measured baselines and inventories, such policies
are ultimately unverifiable and unenforceable. Using the major oil
and gas producing province of Saskatchewan as a case study, we derive
first-ever measurement-based methane inventories for the region and
comprehensively model previous emissions back to the 2012 baseline.
Although relative reductions of 23–69% have likely occurred,
the dispersion of modeled possibilities and the high emissions from
continuing production illustrate the limits of this approach as a
meaningful policy metric. Moreover, nearly 90% of apparent reductions
are explained by decreased production at heavy oil facilities, suggesting
emissions have potential to rebound if production resumes. By contrast,
derived measurement-based methane emissions intensities facilitate
quantitative assessment and show that despite any past reductions,
Saskatchewan’s 0.41 ± 0.03 g/MJ intensity remains among
the highest in North America. This highlights how relative reduction
targets absent measured baselines and inventories are inherently futile
and risk rewarding high emitters while obscuring ongoing mitigation
potential. Ultimately, required global methane reductions will only
be achieved by adopting objectively and independently verifiable emission
metrics while measuring and tracking progress toward a net zero future.