Quantifying the Value of Geologic Carbon Mineralization for Project Risk Management in Carbon Capture and Removal Pathways

Carbon mineralization is the most secure form of carbon sequestration, but the value of mineral trapping relative to those of other mechanisms has not been quantified. Here, a techno-economic framework is developed to determine a levelized (investment) value of mineralization (LVOM) across a range of scenarios for CO₂ capture or removal, injection schemes, and mineralization rates. LVOM considers both the direct value (in the form of reductions in upfront trust funds, monitoring requirements, and postinjection site care periods) and indirect value in the form of avoided leakage, where monetary impacts of leakage include tax/carbon credit forfeiture, remediation costs, and adjustment to the levelized cost of capture and injection. For a baseline mineralization scenario ranging from 0 to 2% avoided leakage, the LVOM increases up to $5.59/tCO₂ for point-source emitters with a levelized cost of $62/tCO₂ ($85/tCO₂ credit) and to $9.29/tCO₂ for DAC with a levelized cost of $150/tCO₂ ($180/tCO₂ credit). Across all scenarios, mineralization is most valuable for DAC facilities, which incur higher levelized costs offset by higher carbon credits (i.e., generate higher-value CO₂). This result, combined with natural synergy between the relative location-independence of DAC and the location-dependence of reservoirs capable of mineralization, supports the strategic use of geologic carbon mineralization to support negative emission pathways.