Multicriteria Suitability Index for Prioritizing Early-Stage Deployments of Wastewater-Derived Fertilizers in Sub-Saharan Africa

Recycling nutrients from wastewater could simultaneously decrease the carbon intensity of traditional ammonia supply chains and increase the accessibility of local fertilizer. Despite the theoretical potential, techno-economic viability of wastewater nutrient recovery in sub-Saharan Africa has been poorly characterized at subnational scales. This work proposes a multicriteria suitability index to describe techno-economic viability of wastewater-derived fertilizer technologies with district-scale resolution. This index, with a range from 0 to 1 (highest suitability), incorporates key drivers, including population density, soil conditions, sanitation levels, and fertilizer prices. We found that suitability varies widely within and across countries in sub-Saharan Africa and that the primary limiting factor is the absence of sanitation infrastructure. Regions with a minimum of 10% cropland area and a suitability index of at least 0.9 were identified as highly suitable target regions for initial deployment. While they comprise only 1% of the analyzed area, these regions are home to 39 million people and contain up to 3.7 million hectares of cropland. Wastewater-derived fertilizer technologies could deliver an average of 25 kg of nitrogen per hectare of cropland, generating additional food equivalent to the annual consumption of 6 million people. Screening for high suitability can inform selection of effective lighthouse demonstration sites that derisk technology deployment and promote the transition to a more circular nutrient economy.