posted on 2020-09-11, 18:38authored byTakuma Watari, Keisuke Nansai, Damien Giurco, Kenichi Nakajima, Benjamin McLellan, Christoph Helbig
Metals underpin essential
functions in modern society, yet their
production currently intensifies climate change. This paper develops
global targets for metal flows, stocks, and use intensity in the global
economy out to 2100. These targets are consistent with emissions pathways
to achieve a 2 °C climate goal and cover six major metals (iron,
aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, and nickel). Results indicate that despite
advances in low-carbon metal production, a transformative system change
to meet the society’s needs with less metal is required to
remain within a 2 °C pathway. Globally, demand for goods and
services over the 21st century needs to be met with approximately
7 t/capita of metal stockroughly half the current level in
high-income countries. This systemic change will require a peak in
global metal production by 2030 and deep decoupling of economic growth
from both metal flows and stocks. Importantly, the identified science-based
targets are theoretically achievable through such measures as efficient
design, more intensive use, and longer product lifetime, but immediate
action is crucial before middle- and low-income countries complete
full-scale urbanization.