Attribution of Lake Warming in Four Shallow Lakes in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Basin

Many physical, chemical, and biological processes in lakes depend on lake water temperature. However, attribution of the warming rate in a shallow lake is not well understood yet. Here, we evaluated a one-dimensional lake model FLake by observed daily lake surface water temperature (LSWT) at four typical lakes in the Middle and Lower Yangtze River basin and then attributed LSWT warming to climate variables during the period 1979–2017. We found that FLake could capture well the seasonal/interannual variation of observed LSWT. During the 39-year study period, LSWT significantly warms at a rate of 0.26–0.28 °C per decade, 24–35% slower than the air temperature. Increased solar radiation and air temperature contributed to most (>80%) of the LSWT warming. The warming trend of LSWT in the spring is the largest among the four seasons, 2–4 times the warming rate of the other seasons. Brightening in the spring contributes 50–64% of the largest spring warming. The future air warming plus the brightening trend with the Clean Air Act in China would amplify LSWT warming and, thus, advance and/or deteriorate algae blooms, especially in spring.