Adaptive Mitigation of Warming-Induced Food Crisis and Nitrogen Pollution

Feeding the world’s population in the face of global warming is a challenging task. Warming poses a dual threat to both global food security and nitrogen pollution in croplands. However, a consensus remains elusive regarding the precise impact of warming on the nitrogen cycle in global croplands. Our study revealed that warming alone could reduce grain yields by 21% (with a 95% confidence interval of 15–27%) while increasing nitrogen losses to the environment by 54–169%. Under the 2050 warming scenario, the annual global nitrogen harvest is projected to decrease by 16 million tonnes (Tg), accompanied by an increase in nitrogen surplus (nitrogen lost to the environment) of 29 Tg relative to the baseline. Implementation of timely and robust adaptive mitigation strategies, including optimization of planting dates, cultivars, irrigation, and fertilization practices, could mitigate the warming-induced food crisis and nitrogen pollution, averting potential losses of US$ 530 billion at an estimated cost of US$ 73 billion.