es400069b_si_001.pdf (1.78 MB)
Dynamic Analysis of Global Copper Flows. Global Stocks, Postconsumer Material Flows, Recycling Indicators, and Uncertainty Evaluation
journal contribution
posted on 2015-12-16, 23:00 authored by Simon Glöser, Marcel Soulier, Luis A. Tercero EspinozaWe
present a dynamic model of global copper stocks and flows which
allows a detailed analysis of recycling efficiencies, copper stocks
in use, and dissipated and landfilled copper. The model is based on
historical mining and refined copper production data (1910–2010)
enhanced by a unique data set of recent global semifinished goods
production and copper end-use sectors provided by the copper industry.
To enable the consistency of the simulated copper life cycle in terms
of a closed mass balance, particularly the matching of recycled metal
flows to reported historical annual production data, a method was
developed to estimate the yearly global collection rates of end-of-life
(postconsumer) scrap. Based on this method, we provide estimates of
8 different recycling indicators over time. The main indicator for
the efficiency of global copper recycling from end-of-life (EoL) scrapthe
EoL recycling ratewas estimated to be 45% on average, ±
5% (one standard deviation) due to uncertainty and variability over
time in the period 2000–2010. As uncertainties of specific
input datamainly concerning assumptions on end-use lifetimes
and their distributionare high, a sensitivity analysis with
regard to the effect of uncertainties in the input data on the calculated
recycling indicators was performed. The sensitivity analysis included
a stochastic (Monte Carlo) uncertainty evaluation with 105 simulation runs.